Electoral Circumstances

2016 Election:

·        Congresswoman Stefanik announced that she was running for reelection in January of 2016. She, along with her democrat and green party opponents, ran unopposed in the primaries. Elise won 65.3% of the vote.

Next Election:

• New York’s 21^st is getting more and more republican every year, which was proven by Stefanik’s win by a large margin both times she has run. This was also reflected in the presidential vote from last election with Trump winning over Hillary.

• The district has shown that they like Elise, and they like the youth that she brings to the house, as that is one of the major things that she campaigned on last election. However, with Trump’s low approval rating it is assumed that the next congress will be more democratic. The relationship between presidential approval ratings and congressional elections is rough, and Republicans have some pretty clear structural advantages, but the GOP could hold the House even if Trump remains about as unpopular as he is now.

• Historically, there’s a wide margin of error between a president’s approval rating and how people vote in House elections. Generally speaking, a president’s party does better in down-ballot races when he’s popular and worse when he’s less popular. But it’s not a 1-to-1 relationship. You can see this by plotting the presidents’ final Gallup job approval ratings before every midterm election since World War II against how many House seats his party lost.
  

·        Because of this relationship and the margin that Elise has won by in the past two elections, I believe that it will be a pretty safe race for her in 2018.

Campaign Finances:

•         In the 2016 election Congresswoman Stefanik Raised a little over $3.1 Million, and only spent $2.6 million of that.

•         The majority of her finances came from PACs

Where does Elise stand on the issues?

·        Economy

o   Create jobs and economic opportunities for small businesses to grow in Upstate New York

·        Taxes

o   Reduce the out of control tax and regulatory burdens facing small businesses by reforming the tax code to be flatter and fairer

·        Healthcare

o   Repeal Obamacare and replace it with common sense solutions to lower health care costs and improve quality and access

·        Agriculture

o   Support Upstate farmers—The backbone of the North Country communities

·        Veterans and Military Families

o   Protect Fort Drum

o   Ensure that veterans and military families receive the care and services they’ve earned

·        Constitution

o   Uphold the 2^nd amendment

As you can see, many of these issues are specifically geared towards the population of her district. This reinforces their draw towards her and explains why they have voted for her with such a large margin.